By Tobias Fraser
As a nation in possession of nuclear weapons, and a signatory of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, the United Kingdom is a prime target in the event of nuclear war. Russia’s war in Ukraine and rising global tensions has led to the largest global threat of nuclear attacks since the Cold War. So, what would happen if Russia launched a nuclear strike on the UK? For the sake of this hypothetical, let’s imagine Russia launched Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) instead of its bomber planes or submarines.
Russia launches multiple ICBMs at the UK, targeted at its major cities and military bases. This launch would almost immediately be detected by British radar systems at RAF Fylingdales, the UK’s early warning radar base. Approximately, 20 minutes remain before the UK is hit. Once detected, Fylingdales would report to Government Communication Headquarters (GCHQ) and the Ministry of Defence (MOD). The MOD would ensure that this is a genuine attack and contact 10 Downing Street to inform the Prime Minister.
To ensure this, intelligence from MI6 and other NATO nations would be needed, though this would most likely already have been confirmed as soon as the missiles were launched. The Prime Minister then gives the final heads up for a counterattack. Meanwhile across the UK, all TVs and smartphones would switch to an emergency broadcast urging people to seek shelter immediately. Very few nuclear shelters still exist following the end of the Cold War. If we assume that such shelters exist in secret, then these will be reserved for the government and military personnel.
10 minutes now remain, and the UK would launch a counterattack. The UK’s nuclear weapons consist of four ballistic missile submarines operated by the Royal Navy, the ‘Vanguard class’, more commonly referred to as ‘Trident’. Each Trident warhead has the ability to wipe out a city the size of Liverpool.
GCHQ is the only authority capable of contacting Trident at sea, and would send an emergency launch order from the PM. The captain of the submarine would receive a fax with the orders printed out and then give the command to fire the warheads. The submarine would perform an emergency dive to launch depth and then would launch her missiles, wiping out over 160 Russian cities and military sites.
Speaking realistically, the UK will have already been hit before the British submarine could launch her missiles; the process from receiving the order to launching aboard a submarine is strenuous. This is irrelevant for the crew as they are in a classified location and can fire missiles up to 4,000 miles away from the target.
Every new Prime Minister’s first job is to decide what a nuclear submarine will do after launch if the British government is disabled. This consists of a written note aboard and contains one of three options: scuttle the submarine (suicide), bequeath command to an allied nation (if there are any left) or surrender to the enemy. We’ll never know what Keir Starmer picked upon taking office in May 2024, but I can be certain this would’ve been one of the hardest of his initial tasks.
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many commentators believe we have entered a ‘new Cold War’. Tensions between the West and East have never been higher since the fall of the Soviet Union, though the main Eastern leader now appears to be China. Putin’s invasion has, if anything, shown the world that Russia’s military is nowhere near the standard it was thought to be, with the Russian army having to use refurbished tanks from the Second World War. Thus, a second Cold War is more likely to be between NATO and Beijing rather than Moscow.
While the world is currently described as a ‘powder keg’ in terms of foreign affairs, nuclear war shouldn’t be something to worry about. All nations in possession of nuclear weapons adopt a policy of ‘mutually assured destruction’, meaning if you fire your missiles at me, I’ll fire my missiles at you. Were Putin mad enough to open fire, he’d be assuring the destruction of himself and his nation.
This is also why more funding has been allocated to our nuclear deterrent. In around 10 years, our Vanguard class of nuclear submarines, which have been operating since the 1990s, will have been phased out and replaced with brand new, state-of-the-art submarines known as the ‘Dreadnought class’. These are bigger, faster and more powerful than their predecessors and will ensure the safety of Britain from nuclear attack. Without Trident, we’re sitting ducks in a uranium-fuelled pond.
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